Methodology Indices Last update: May 19th 2017 Seasonal predictions for June-August (TUSCANY): JUNE: near normal temperature and rainy days (high confidence) JULY: near normal temperature and rainy days (medium confidence) AUGUST: near normal temperature and rainy days (low confidence) JUNE JULY AUGUST TEMPERATURE near normal near normal near normal RAINY DAYS near normal near normal near normal Description: June - July: normal circulation patters expected over central-southern Europe (especially central-eastern part) because of climatological position of central african branch of the Hadley Cell; hence near normal temperature and rainy days are predicted in Italy and central-eastern Europe (1981-2010 mean). August: normal temperature and rainy days expected (based on CFS model output). Experimental seasonal forecasts, updated monthly. Classification of anomalies Based period: 1981-2010 Climate indices and teleconnections considered AMO, ENSO, IRI/ECMWF/NOAA/NASA projections ,Northern Emisphere SST, solar activity, Polar vortex behavour (both Strat-Tropo), MJO, IOD, african/indian monsoon. SOLAR ACTIVITY: in the next three months solar activity is expected to produce an average of 20 sunsposts/day and some spotless days. Ap index below 10 (5.5). ENSO: neutral conditions through the end of June. A weak El Niño is likely to return starting from mid July-August. MJO: phases 1-2-3-8 will be probably the most active in the next 30 days (GFS based). INDIAN MONSOON: the two main indian weather services (Skymet and IMD) forecast a near normal monsoon season (96-104% of rain expected over the whole country). INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE: neutral conditions expected in next coming months. ITCZ + WEST AFRICAN MONSOON: ITCZ near normal latitute in the first decade of May. No significant anomalies expected in June. POLAR VORTEX: NA AMO: SST anomalies over North Atlantic increase in April, attending on +0.289°C. It is likley a further reduction of the anomalies in June because of a further reinforce of SST "blob" between Iceland and Terranova. SST Mediterranean: normal Mediterranean dipole. Anomalies classification For further informations about the legend click here based period: 1981-2010 TEMPERATURE above average: anomaly > +1.0 °C ; near normal: anomaly bewteen -1.0 and +1.0 °C ; below normal: anomaly < -1 °C) ; RAINY DAYS above average: > +2 wet days/month than normal ; near normal: between -2 and +2 wet days/month than normal ; below normal: < -2 wet days/month than normal ; *For further informations about the legend click here